Saturday, 13 August 2011

Premier League 2011-12 Season - Battle for Survival

This season the Premier League welcomes back Norwich City and Queen's Park Rangers, whilst it also for the first time will see a Welsh side compete in it - Swansea City. For all three clubs, simply avoiding relegation would constitute a successful season this time around. So, what are their chances? And who from the current crop of league teams will they be competing against?

Swansea City - The Swans defeated Reading in a thrilling Championship playoff final to earn the right to play in the Premier League for the very first time. The team that comes up via the playoffs is usually a favourite for immediate relegation; indeed of the last five to win promotion this way, only one survived their first season in the Premier League. That was Hull, who were relegated in their second year.
Rodgers has brought in a couple of Premier League journeymen in Wayne Routledge and Leroy Lita in the hope that they will provide the experience the Swans otherwise lack. They did, though, lose Darren Pratley to Bolton. Though Swansea play good football, and it has been proven that this approach can work in the Premier League even for lower-table teams, I do not expect them to still be in the league in 12 months' time.

Norwich City - Norwich's great advantage is their good upcoming young manager, Paul Lambert. He got the job after hammering Norwich 7-1 with his Colchester team on the opening day of the 2009/10 League One season, and hasn't looked back since. Successive promotions has seen him lead the Canaries into the Premier League, and it could be argued this form will serve them well.
Norwich have been trying to bolster their defence with loan signing Richie De Laet from Manchester United, and have tabled a bid for promising youngster Daniel Ayala from Liverpool. Although these signings should help them out, I feel Norwich's lack of experienced Premier League players will eventually show and they will drop from the league late on, perhaps in the last week or two of fixtures.

Queen's Park Rangers - Huge financial backing, and a very experienced manager in Neil Warnock, has allowed the Hoops to return to the top flight for the first time since 1996. Warnock, though, has always struggled with the demands of the Premier League and now that QPR are there, you can be certain that their owners will demand that they stay there. Over the summer there were rumblings that they wanted Warnock replaced with someone who has been proven at this level. Don't be surprised if Warnock is shown the door should things start to look grim.
Jay Bothroyd and DJ Campbell have been brought in to score the goals, and they still have their talented playmaker Adel Taarabt, although he himself failed to make an impression last time he plied his trade at this level. Come January though, QPR will find they have the money to attract players should it become necessary. I expect that Loftus Road will be hosting Premier League football again in 2012/13.

Other sides in danger - I'm picking three other Premier League teams to struggle this season: Wigan Athletic, Blackburn Rovers and Aston Villa.

Wigan have flirted with relegation ever since arriving into the league, and somehow always survived in spite of selling their better players time and again. Though, at this time, they still have their primary goal threat in Hugo Rodellega, they have sold Charles N'Zogbia to Villa (more on them shortly), and they are still wildly unpredictable week-to-week and prone to bouts of shipping bags of goals. This is never good and I feel that this season the Latics' number might finally be up.

Blackburn Rovers were, in many respects, lucky to avoid relegation last season. The baffling decision to replace Sam Allardyce with Steve Kean probably should have backfired, and only a last-day win at Wolves ensured their safety - and that of Kean's job. They have signed David Goodwillie, who showed great promise in Scotland but recent history suggests that this does not necessarily translate to Premier League success. My prediction? Blackburn will survive, but Steve Kean will not.

Finally, Aston Villa. Let's get one thing straight - Alex McLeish is not in danger of being sacked any time soon. The board knew that his appointment from Birmingham would be a controversial one and I expect them to give him their full support for as long as possible. But the loss of arguably their best two players last year, Stewart Downing and Ashley Young, and a failure to bring in a proven goalscorer may hurt them badly. They have done well to replace outgoing Brad Friedel with Shay Given, but this will only serve to save them a few points here and there. N'Zogbia is a good player on the wing, but who does he provide for? I think Villa will survive, but it will be a long and difficult season for the Villa Park faithful.

Bottom six prediction:

15. Aston Villa
16. Blackburn Rovers
17. QPR
18. Wigan Athletic
19. Norwich City
20. Swansea City

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